Shock index as a prognosticator for emergent surgical intervention and mortality in trauma patients in Johannesburg: A retrospective cohort study

Introduction
Trauma is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide with exsanguination being the primary preventable cause through early surgical intervention. We assessed two popular trauma scoring systems, injury severity scores (ISS) and shock index (SI) to determine the optimal cut off values that may predict the need for emergent surgical intervention (ESI) and in-hospital mortality.

Methods
A retrospective analysis of patient records from a tertiary hospital’s trauma unit for the year 2019 was done. Descriptive statistics, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted and area under the curve (AUC) reported for predicting the need for ESI in all study participants, as well as in patients with penetrating injuries alone, based on continuous variables of ISS, SI or a combination of ISS and SI. The Youdin Index was applied to determine the optimal ISS and SI cut off values.

Results
A total of 1964 patients’ records were included, 89.0% were male and the median age (IQR) was 30 (26–37) years. Penetrating injuries accounted for 65.9% of all injuries. ISS and SI were higher in the ESI group with median (IQR) 11 (10–17) and 0.74 (0.60–0.95), respectively. The overall mortality rate was 4.5%. The optimal cut-off values for ESI and mortality by ISS (AUC) were 9 (0.74) and 12 (0.86) (p = 0.0001), with optimal values for SI (AUC) being 0.72 (0.60), and 0.91 (0.68) (p = 0.0001), respectively.

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background
Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality.

Methods
We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis.

Findings
We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality.

Interpretation
Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030.

Emergency Department Outcome of Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury – A Retrospective Study from Pakistan

Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality in both adults and children. As with other severe injuries, the outcome of TBIs is also gravely related to the quality of emergency care. Effective emergency care significantly contributes to reduced morbidity and mortality. This study was ensued to evaluate the characteristics of TBIs in Pakistan and their outcomes in the emergency department (ED).

Methods: This retrospective review included records of all TBI patients seen in the Neurosurgical ED of Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan from 1st September 2019 till 7th December 2019.

Results: During the study period, 5,546 patients with TBI were seen in the ED; an estimated 56.5 patients per day. There were 4,054 (73.1%) male and 1,492 (26.9%) female patients. Most of these (26%) were of age <10 years. The most common culprit of TBI was road traffic accidents (RTAs) (n=2,163; 39%) followed by accidental fall (n=1,785; 32.2%). Head injury was mostly mild (n=4,034; 72.8%) and only 265 (4.7%) had a severe injury. Only 10% (n=549) patients were admitted for further treatment, 16% were managed in the ED then discharged, and 67% were immediately discharged from the ED after the first examination and necessary management. The ED mortality rate of TBIs was 2.2% (n=123/5,546) in our study. All of these cases had severe head injuries.

Conclusion: Major culprits of TBI are RTAs and accidental falls. TBIs are mostly mild-to-moderate and the ED mortality rate is low.

Macrovascular Complications in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: Incidence and Impact on Survival in Kazakhstan

Background and aim: Diabetic patients are at an increased risk for the development of macrovascular complications such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and lower-limb amputations (LLA). This study aimed to explore a. the incidence of hospital admission for macrovascular complications (AMI, stroke, and LLA); b. to assess the impact of hospital admission on survival in a large population with diabetes mellitus living in Kazakhstan.

Materials and methods: Retrospective observational study using a nationwide anonymized electronic database of 98.469 hospitalized diabetic patients from Kazakhstan between November 2013 and December 2019. The incidence of hospital admissions for AMI, stroke and LLA were obtained to calculate their all-time cumulative incidence, and survival rate at follow-up.

Results: The all-time cumulative incidence of hospital admissions was 1.30% for AMI, 1.94% for stroke and 2.94% for LLA. The incidence of macrovascular complications was statistically significantly higher in males compared to females (p-value<0.05). 29.03% of diabetic patients with AMI, 25.16% with stroke and 29.80% with LLA died during the follow-up period. Individuals with AMI had 3.58 (95% CI 3.20; 4.01) times, with stroke 3.86 (95% CI 3.52; 4.24) times and with LLA 3.63 (95% CI 3.38; 3.88) times higher hazard of 6-year death compared to diabetic patients free of these complications. The stratified survival analysis by sex indicated the lower survival in women than in men, and the lower survival in older age groups.

Conclusion: The results from this study shows that cumulative incidence of AMI and stroke among diabetic patients admitted in the hospitals in Kazakhstan between 2013-2019 years was similar to the estimates from other countries, but the incidence of LLA was significantly higher in Kazakhstan. Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) in Kazakhstan are at high risk of excess mortality if they suffer from macro-vascular complications. More research is required to explore the reasons for the high incidence of those complications, in order to propose systematic solutions for lowering the incidence and improve survival.

Burden of Cervical Cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region During the Years 2000 and 2017: Retrospective Data Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background:
Cervical cancer is a growing health concern, especially in resource-limited settings.

Objective:
The objective of this study was to assess the burden of cervical cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and globally between the years 2000 and 2017 by using a pooled data analysis approach.

Methods:
We used an ecological approach at the country level. This included extracting data from publicly available databases and linking them together in the following 3 steps: (1) extraction of data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in the years 2000 and 2017, (2) categorization of EMR countries according to the World Bank gross domestic product per capita, and (3) linking age-specific population data from the Population Statistics Division of the United Nations (20-29 years, 30-49 years, and >50 years) and GBD’s data with gross national income per capita and globally extracted data, including cervical cancer mortality and DALY numbers and rates per country. The cervical cancer mortality rate was provided by the GBD study using the following formula: number of cervical cancer deaths × 100,000/female population in the respective age group.

Results:
The absolute number of deaths due to cervical cancer increased from the year 2000 (n=6326) to the year 2017 (n=8537) in the EMR; however, the mortality rate due to this disease decreased from the year 2000 (2.7 per 100,000) to the year 2017 (2.5 per 100,000). According to age-specific data, the age group ≥50 years showed the highest mortality rate in both EMR countries and globally, and the age group of 20-29 years showed the lowest mortality rate both globally and in the EMR countries. Further, the rates of cervical cancer DALYs in the EMR were lower compared to the global rates (2.7 vs 6.8 in 2000 and 2.5 vs 6.8 in 2017 for mortality rate per 100,000; 95.8 vs 222.2 in 2000 and 86.3 vs 211.8 in 2017 for DALY rate per 100,000; respectively). However, the relative difference in the number of DALYs due to cervical cancer between the year 2000 and year 2017 in the EMR was higher than that reported globally (34.9 vs 24.0 for the number of deaths and 23.5 vs 18.1 for the number of DALYs, respectively).

Conclusions:
We found an increase in the burden of cervical cancer in the EMR as per the data on the absolute number of deaths and DALYs. Further, we found that the health care system has an increased number of cases to deal with, despite the decrease in the absolute number of deaths and DALYs. Cervical cancer is preventable if human papilloma vaccination is taken and early screening is performed. Therefore, we recommend identifying effective vaccination programs and interventions to reduce the burden of this disease.

Changes in body mass index, obesity, and overweight in Southern Africa development countries, 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study

Background
High body mass index (BMI) is associated with stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). An epidemiological analysis of the prevalence of high BMI, stroke, IHD, and T2DM was conducted for 16 Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study data.

Methods
GBD obtained data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and ICD codes. Prevalence of high BMI (≥25 kg/m2), stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributed to high BMI were calculated. Cause of Death Ensemble Model and Spatiotemporal Gaussian regression was used to estimate mortality due to stroke, IHD, and T2DM attributable to high BMI.

Results
Obesity in adult females increased 1.54‐fold from 12.0% (uncertainty interval [UI]: 11.5–12.4) to 18.5% (17.9–19.0), whereas in adult males, obesity nearly doubled from 4.5 (4.3–4.8) to 8.8 (8.5–9.2). In children, obesity more than doubled in both sexes, and overweight increased by 27.4% in girls and by 37.4% in boys. Mean BMI increased by 0.7 from 22.4 (21.6–23.1) to 23.1 (22.3–24.0) in adult males, and by 1.0 from 23.8 (22.9–24.7) to 24.8 (23.8–25.8) in adult females. South Africa 44.7 (42.5–46.8), Swaziland 33.9 (31.7–36.0) and Lesotho 31.6 (29.8–33.5) had the highest prevalence of obesity in 2019. The corresponding prevalence in males for the three countries were 19.1 (17.5–20.7), 19.3 (17.7–20.8), and 9.2 (8.4–10.1), respectively. The DRC and Madagascar had the least prevalence of adult obesity, from 5.6 (4.8–6.4) and 7.0 (6.1–7.9), respectively in females in 2019, and in males from 4.9 (4.3–5.4) in the DRC to 3.9 (3.4–4.4) in Madagascar.

Conclusions
The prevalence of high BMI is high in SADC. Obesity more than doubled in adults and nearly doubled in children. The 2019 mean BMI for adult females in seven countries exceeded 25 kg/m2. SADC countries are unlikely to meet UN2030 SDG targets. Prevalence of high BMI should be studied locally to help reduce morbidity.

Associations of On-arrival Vital Signs with 24-hour In-hospital Mortality in Adult Trauma Patients Admitted to Four Public University Hospitals in Urban India: A Prospective Multi-Centre Cohort Study

Abstract
Introduction: In India, more than a million people die annually due to injuries. Identifying the patients at risk of early mortality (within 24 hour of hospital arrival) is essential for triage. A bilateral Government Australia-India Trauma System Collaboration generated a trauma registry in the context of India, which yielded a cohort of trauma patients for systematic observation and interventions. The aim of this study was to determine the independent association of on-arrival vital signs and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) with 24-hour mortality among adult trauma patients admitted at four university public hospitals in urban India.

Methods: We performed an analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study of trauma patients across four urban public university hospitals in India, between April 2016 and February 2018. The primary outcome was 24-hour in-hospital mortality. We used logistic regression to determine mutually independent associations of the vital signs and GCS with 24-hour mortality.

Results: A total of 7497 adult patients (18 years and above) were included. The 24-hour mortality was 1.9%. In univariable logistic regression, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) and the vital signs systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR) and peripheral capillary oxygen saturation (SpO2) had statistically significant associations with 24-hour mortality. These relationships held in multivariable analysis with hypotension (SBP100bpm) and bradycardia (HR<60bpm), hypoxia (SpO220brpm) and severe (3-8) and moderate (9-12) GCS having strong association with 24-hour mortality. Notably, the patients with missing values for SBP, HR and RR also demonstrated higher odds of 24-hour mortality. The Injury Severity Scores (ISS) did not corelate with 24-hour mortality.

Conclusion: The routinely measured GCS and vital signs including SBP, HR, SpO2 and RR are independently associated with 24-hour in-hospital mortality in the context of university hospitals of urban India. These easily measured parameters in the emergency setting may help improve decision-making and guide further management in the trauma victims. A poor short-term prognosis was also observed in patients in whom these physiological variables were not recorded.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya.
Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5−12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality.
Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74−116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3−38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria.
Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Does in-hospital trauma mortality in urban Indian academic centres differ between “office-hours” and “after-hours”?

Introduction
Trauma services within hospitals may vary considerably at different times across a 24 h period. The variable services may negatively affect the outcome of trauma victims. The current investigation aims to study the effect of arrival time of major trauma patients on mortality and morbidity.

Method
Retrospective analysis of the Australia-India Trauma Systems Collaboration (AITSC) registry established in four public university teaching centres in India Based on hospital arrival time, patients were grouped into “Office-hours” and “After-hours”. Outcome parameters were compared between the above groups.

Results
5536 (68.4%) patients presented “after-hours” (AO) and 2561 (31.6%) during “office-hours” (OH). The in-hospital mortality for “after-hours” and “office-hours” presentations were 12.1% and 11.6% respectively. On unadjusted analysis, there was no statistical difference in the odds of survival for OH versus AH presentations. (OR,1.05, 95% CI 0.9‐1.2). Adjusting for potential prognostic factors (injury severity, presence of shock on arrival, referral status, sex, or extremes of age), there was no statistically significant odds of survival for OH versus AH presentations (OR,1.02, 95%CI 0.9–1.2).ICU length of stay and duration of mechanical ventilation was longer in the AH group.

Conclusion
The in-hospital mortality did not differ between trauma patients who arrived during “after-hours” compared to ‘“office-hours”.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Mumbai: A Survey of Providers along the Care Continuum

Introduction:
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a significant burden of a global disease, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as India. Efforts to curb the impact of TBI require an appreciation of local factors related to this disease and its treatment.

Methods:
Semi-structured qualitative interviews were administered to paramedics, anesthesiologists, general surgeons, and neurosurgeons in locations throughout Mumbai from April to May 2018. A thematic analysis with an iterative coding was used to analyze the data. The primary objective was to identify provider-perceived themes related to TBI care in Mumbai.

Results:
A total of 50 participants were interviewed, including 17 paramedics, 15 anesthesiologists, 9 general surgeons, and 9 neurosurgeons who were involved in caring for TBI patients. The majority of physicians interviewed discussed their experiences in public sector hospitals (82%), while 12% discussed private sector hospitals and 6% discussed both. Four major themes emerged: Workforce, equipment, financing care, and the family and public role. These themes were often discussed in the context of their effects on increasing or decreasing complications and delays. Participants developed adaptations when managing shortcomings in these thematic areas. These adaptations included teamwork during workforce shortages and resource allocation when equipment was limited among others.

Conclusions:
Workforce, equipment, financing care, and the family and public role were identified as major themes in the care for TBI in Mumbai. These thematic elements provide a framework to evaluate and improve care along the care spectrum for TBI. Similar frameworks should be adapted to local contexts in urbanizing cities in LMICs.